SEMCOG 2045 Growth Forecast

Every five years, the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) does a thirty-year forecast of population and economic growth. The draft of the 2045 forecast is on the street now. It's just a "crystal ball" but it's probably the best guess we'll get. I like to think of the SEMCOG forecast as "what will happen if we don't do anything different". I sure hope we "wake up" and change how we do stuff in Southeast Michigan.

Overall the region is pridicted to grow slowly in both population and economy...if we keep on with "business as usual".

In population growth, Washtenaw is the fastest-growing in the seven-county SEMCOG region. Within Washtenaw, the City of Ann Arbor is expected to grow the most. We'll see what effect Ann Arbor's divided opinions about growth have, though. If either Planning Commission or Council in Ann Arbor don't like "growing up" or can't think of anyplace they'd like to put the 19 thousand forecast new residents, they'll go elsewhere.

Ypsi Township is expected to hold on to second place in population. But the spotlight for fastest growing unit in the county shines on little Saline Township, more than doubling in population, a growth rate of 127%, followed by Manchester, with 72% growth. Both these units remain well under 5,000, despite their belt-stretching rate of growth.

Here's a summary of Washtenaw County's guestimate.This table shows the better-known units of the county, plus those forecast to grow by more than 5,000 people. In each category, first place is colored red, second place blue.

Area	2015 Population	2045 Population	Population Growth	Percent Growth
Washtenaw County	358,550	450,133	91583	25.4%
Ann Arbor	117,302	136,606	19,304	16.5
Ann Arbor Twp	4,771	9,919	3,323	57.1
Chelsea	4,823	6,245	1,422	50.4
Dexter	4,351	4,535	184	29.5
Manchester	1,925	3,311	1,386	72.0
Manchester Twp	2,526	4,295	1,769	70.0
Northfield Twp	8,167	13,440	5,273	64.6
Pittsfield Twp	39,130	55,986	16,856	64.6
Saline	8,193	9,020	830	10.1
Saline Twp	1,890	4,289	2,399	126.9
Scio Twp	18,006	23,609	5,603	31.1
York Twp	8,800	15,190	6,390	12.6
Ypsilanti	20,395	25,466	5,071	24.9
Ypsilanti Twp	55,545	63,564	8019	14.4

Job growth has been forecast by Fulton and Grimes, the duo of economists at U of M who are known nation-wide for their astute forecasts.

With education and healthcare the fastest-growing sectors of the economy, it's hardly surprising that Ann Arbor has the greatest number of new jobs. Pittsfield Township has the second-largest growth, though Ypsi Township holds on to second place in total job growth. Once again little Manchester has a surprise for us: the fastest rate of employment growth: 63%. Unfortunately, that represents under 600 jobs. York earns second place in the rate of job growth, with 56.7% - but the number, under 2,000, is not overwhelming. Again, in each category first place is colored red, second place blue.

Area	2015 Jobs	2045 Jobs	Job Growth	Percent Growth
Washtenaw County	254,632	296,393	41,761	16.4%
Ann Arbor	127,235	145,532	18,297	14.4
Ann Arbor Twp	8,782	1,3485	4,703	53.6
Manchester	895	1,464	569	63.6
Pittsfield Twp	25,458	26,529	1,371	5.4
Scio Twp	14,987	15,738	751	5.0
York Twp	2,825	4,427	1,602	56.7
Ypsilanti	11,168	13,740	2,572	23.0
Ypsilanti Twp	16,457	25,005	8,548	51.9

 

 

Want more detail?

• SEMCOG offers a cool interactive map at http://maps.semcog.org/Forecast/.