Tuesday, November 21, 2017

SEMCOG 2045 Growth Forecast

Every five years, the Southeast Michigan Council of Governments (SEMCOG) does a thirty-year forecast of population and economic growth. The draft of the 2045 forecast is on the street now. It's just a "crystal ball" but it's probably the best guess we'll get. I like to think of the SEMCOG forecast as "what will happen if we don't do anything different". I sure hope we "wake up" and change how we do stuff in Southeast Michigan.

Overall the region is pridicted to grow slowly in both population and economy...if we keep on with "business as usual".

In population growth, Washtenaw is the fastest-growing in the seven-county SEMCOG region. Within Washtenaw, the City of Ann Arbor is expected to grow the most. We'll see what effect Ann Arbor's divided opinions about growth have, though. If either Planning Commission or Council in Ann Arbor don't like "growing up" or can't think of anyplace they'd like to put the 19 thousand forecast new residents, they'll go elsewhere.

Ypsi Township is expected to hold on to second place in population. But the spotlight for fastest growing unit in the county shines on little Saline Township, more than doubling in population, a growth rate of 127%, followed by Manchester, with 72% growth. Both these units remain well under 5,000, despite their belt-stretching rate of growth.

Here's a summary of Washtenaw County's guestimate.This table shows the better-known units of the county, plus those forecast to grow by more than 5,000 people. In each category, first place is colored red, second place blue.

Area 2015 Population 2045 Population Population Growth Percent Growth
Washtenaw County 358,550 450,133 91583 25.4%
Ann Arbor 117,302 136,606 19,304 16.5
Ann Arbor Twp 4,771 9,919 3,323 57.1
Chelsea 4,823 6,245 1,422 50.4
Dexter 4,351 4,535 184 29.5
Manchester 1,925 3,311 1,386 72.0
Manchester Twp 2,526 4,295 1,769 70.0
Northfield Twp 8,167 13,440 5,273 64.6
Pittsfield Twp 39,130 55,986 16,856 64.6
Saline 8,193 9,020 830 10.1
Saline Twp 1,890 4,289 2,399 126.9
Scio Twp 18,006 23,609 5,603 31.1
York Twp 8,800 15,190 6,390 12.6
Ypsilanti 20,395 25,466 5,071 24.9
Ypsilanti Twp 55,545 63,564 8019 14.4

Job growth has been forecast by Fulton and Grimes, the duo of economists at U of M who are known nation-wide for their astute forecasts.

With education and healthcare the fastest-growing sectors of the economy, it's hardly surprising that Ann Arbor has the greatest number of new jobs. Pittsfield Township has the second-largest growth, though Ypsi Township holds on to second place in total job growth. Once again little Manchester has a surprise for us: the fastest rate of employment growth: 63%. Unfortunately, that represents under 600 jobs. York earns second place in the rate of job growth, with 56.7% - but the number, under 2,000, is not overwhelming. Again, in each category first place is colored red, second place blue.

Area 2015 Jobs 2045 Jobs Job Growth Percent Growth
Washtenaw County 254,632 296,393 41,761 16.4%
Ann Arbor 127,235 145,532 18,297 14.4
Ann Arbor Twp 8,782 1,3485 4,703 53.6
Manchester 895 1,464 569 63.6
Pittsfield Twp 25,458 26,529 1,371 5.4
Scio Twp 14,987 15,738 751 5.0
York Twp 2,825 4,427 1,602 56.7
Ypsilanti 11,168 13,740 2,572 23.0
Ypsilanti Twp 16,457 25,005 8,548 51.9

 

 

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