Creativity

Lou Glazer said it. The Fortune 500 say it. Arts and culture really count. Yesterday, Tamara Real from Ann Arbor's Arts Alliance made a presentation at WATS (Washtenaw Area Transportation Study) to highlight that importance.

Just a minute. What does WATS have to do with the arts? More than we might guess, apparently. Here's the connection...

A recent survey looked at the hiring criteria of Fortune 500 companies, and found that they're using a rather unexpected predictor of success for their young applicants: their involvement in creative and cultural activities in high school. The reason? They've discovered drama, music, and art develop creativity and problem-solving ability. Sure, the math, science, and language - all that is important. But what businesses are looking for is adaptability, problem-solving skill, ability to think their way through novel situations. And what they've found is that so-called "cultural activities" are the best way to tell whether someone will demonstrate the necessary quickness on their feet.

The obvious application of this is for our schools, facing tough decisions about what to cut in lean times. Usually the first things to go are arts and culture programs. "They're optional, aren't they?" Of course, the best answer is, "Don't cut anything: invest in our kids!" - but these aren't the best of times.

So where's the tie-in to transportation? Well, it seems schools are cutting back on school bus transportation to museums, music venues, and other "enrichment" activities. Since many of the kids don't have their driver licenses, or perhaps the family lacks a spare automobile, they don't get to the arts and cultural things they need to make them attractive to employers. Well, I guess they're fine for flipping burgers or scanning UPC codes at the registers.

And the thing is, other parts of the country - and other countries - offer their citizens convenient , reliable, frequent public transportation, which their kids can use to enrich their lives and their résumés. So in addition to not cutting our school budgets, investing in public transportation can help our kids catch up with the rest of the world. Not to mention giving a break to the hard-working moms and dads who now try to ferry their kids around everywhere. It's a transportation connection I hadn't thought about, so here's a big THANK YOU to Tamara, Angela, and Cindy from the Arts Alliance.

AA-Detroit Commuter Rail

SEMCOG'S Carmine Palombo was at the the WATS meeting yesterday morning. In addition to explaining the Transportation Asset Management program, he had a quick report on east-west commuter rail progress. "It's like those Christmas presents you give your kids sometimes," he said. "When they open the box, they find another box inside. Inside the second box is a third, and so on. I keep thinking I've opened the last box, and finding another one." So what's the next box - "The last one, I hope!"

SEMCOG and Canadian National Railway have agreed on usage fees, and are now discussing scheduling and dispatching - in other words, who gets to send their train through first. This one is really critical, folks. Without priority for passenger trains, reliability is down the tubes. Without reliability, you lose most of your commuters. Without commuters... curtains for the whole project.

Good News from the AATA Board

At last night's AATA Board meeting, Chairman David Nacht (who had just announced proudly that he rode his bike to the meeting) got a question from a concerned Ypsilanti resident: "I heard service to Ypsilanti will be discontinued, and I just wanted to find out when that will be discussed." Nacht's answer: "We are not planning to discuss cutting service to Ypsilanti at this or any other meeting. We will stand by our POSA (Purchase of Service Agreement) partners."

AATA had requested an increase in the service fee to all districts outside of Ann Arbor, because they pay for only part of the cost of their service. Ypsilanti was the first to say they wouldn't be able to up the ante, but of course the townships are financially just as badly off. So here's a big THANK YOU to David Nacht for his willingness to be flexible.

Thank you also to Ann Arbor residents, who are subsidizing the outlying areas through their millage payments. Please be patient with us. Washtenaw County can either be a successful whole, or a bunch of squabbling, failing jurisdictions. Though we don't all have equal financial muscle, we will all fail equally if some of us fail. Let's be ready to support the unified county transportation plan as soon as it's unveiled.

Brief Summary

This summary of Michigan's transportation system from an official who is in a position to know, but shall remain nameless to protect his or her effectiveness: "Things suck, and they're getting worse. I try to keep the message that simple to get the point across to our legislators."

Washtenaw Avenue Talent Corridor

I have to let you know about the Washtenaw Corridor project. I mentioned it back on April 7, how Anya Dale is leading the planning effort to get transit-oriented development going on Washtenaw Avenue, between AA and Ypsi. The goal is to have an area that attracts young, college-educated people who want a vibrant, walkable neighborhood with good public transportation.

So we had a meeting today, discussed what to do next in three areas: Planning/Zoning, Transportation, and Marketing. It's time-consuming because we want ideas from all the people and groups represented. I can't tell you what was decided, because nothing was decided - we just brainstormed. Anya Dale and her team at the County have their work cut out for them, trying to get it all to make coherent sense.

You know, these things seem to go so very slowly, but really it's necessary to do it "right". In this case, "right" is with public participation. I was so pleased to see not only "the usual suspects", but people from the Interfaith Council for Peace and Justice. "The usual suspects", bless them, are representatives of local governments, AATA, planning agencies, businesses, and chambers of commerce. They're the ones who make this kind of project go. But the Interfaith Council: they're on board because Michigan without transit-oriented development is an unjust place.

Yes, unjust.

In case I haven't said it often enough, communities that require automobiles to live in can become traps. "Need a job, son? Drive over and see us!" But... "Don't have a car, son? Get a job!" Trapped.

The result: we're compelled to live for our cars, and people with low-paying jobs are compelled to pay for their cars just to get to their jobs, whether or not they can afford health care, decent housing, or even food for the kids. This is the American Dream, according to some. How quickly that "dream" becomes a nightmare when you're laid off, you can't pay off your credit cards, car payments, and mortgage. That's why the Interfaith Council for Peace and Justice is taking part in the project.

Slow as it seems, this is making the best progress of any transit-oriented development in the county. Thank you, team members. Thank you, Anya Dale, for managing the project. Thank you, Mandy Grewal and Dick Carlisle, for championing it.

The Need: Dire. The Great Opportunity: Rail.

We had a Town Hall Meeting, organized by State Rep. Pam Byrnes (D-Washtenaw) to talk about transportation. Rep. Byrnes assembled a panel of three to tell us about the current situation and what we're looking at in the near future.

The panel:

• Terri Blackmore, Executive Director of the Washtenaw Area Transportation Study

• Ronald K. DeCook, Director of the Office of Governmental Affairs, Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT)

• Mark Schauer, U. S. Representative for the 7^th District of Michigan, which includes western Washtenaw and Jackson.

There's good news and bad news. Let's start with the bad.

Doom and Gloom

Terri started out explaining how short of money we are for even maintaining our roads, let alone paving or widening anything. Michigan won't have enough money to match the Federal highway funds that will be available in 2011. For every dollar Michigan residents pay in Federal gasoline tax, we now get 92 cents back. In 2011 – unless we do something to raise more money – we'll get much less.

Big graphs and a map provided by the Washtenaw County Road Commission showed the condition of our roads. I'm going to skip the fancy graphs and just give you the figures:

	Roads Eligible for Federal Funds		Other roads*		Total
	%	Miles	%	Miles	%	Miles
Good	19.40%	320	14.00%	231	16.7%	551
Fair	49.00%	807	43.00%	708	46.0%	1515
Poor	31.60%	520	43.00%	708	37.3%	1228

* This table is changed from the original posting; Terri Blackmore explained the difference to me, and I think this is a clearer way to explain it.

OK, so by the most liberal standard, we have 520 miles of roads in“Poor” condition. If you live here, you know exactly what that means. Of those “poor” roads, how many miles can the county afford to repair?

Next fiscal year, we can afford to repair 90 miles.

Is this system broken, or what? Is this the United States, or Haiti? Folks, we've got to invest in our community! We've got to spend some money on our own state, if we expect anyone to move here and start a business. What this says is, we don't believe in ourselves.

A Ray of Hope

Ron DeCook next took us through the TF2 Bill Request. That's the legislation recommended by the Transportation Funding Task Force. I'm not going to go into the details. If you're interested, go to the MDOTsite and download one or more of the PDFs. Here are some highlights:

• They're recommending that we ask the legislature for a “good” transportation funding system. They also spec'd out a “better” funding system, which they don't think is realistic to ask for, given the economic climate. They didn't even spec out what might be considered “the best” system, which they thought was a waste of time to even think about in Michigan. (After all, Michigan funding for transportation – including highways, marine, air, rail, and transit – ranks 47^th out of the 50 states. What can we expect?)

• Revenue will be increased gradually over the next five years. The current system of gas taxes will be changed so that rather than basing it on the number of gallons sold, it will be based on wholesale price – but the system is complicated, and includes a cap of the equivalent of 34 cents per gallon, and a provision never to drop, even if the wholesale price falls.

• In addition to gasoline, registration fees (license plates) will gradually move up over the next few years. Counties that vote for it can add a fee to driver licenses which they can use to fund transit.

• Truck and aviation fuel taxes will also be increased. Amazing fact: the tax on aviation fuel is 3 cents per gallon. That was determined in 1926, when it was 10% of the cost. It has never been raised.

• Only 9.2% of the revenues will be dedicated to transit, rail, light rail, etc. Apparently the Michigan constitution prohibits more than 10% of gas tax money from being spent on transit, but not even that much has been allocated since 1997. I feel strongly that 9.2% is not enough. Sure, we need to repair our raods, but we've been neglecting public transportation even more. With climate change and peak oil breathing down our necks, we need to make a bigger effort than that.

• Public-Private Partnership (PPP) is an important part of the new plan. This includes public-private operation of roads – that is, making some highways tollways and having a private company responsible for operating and maintaining them. The company would be answerable to a publicly appointed board of directors.

• A pot of $50M would be available to help start new transit projects.

• Tax Increment Funding (TIF) would be made available. This is a system used in many other states to capture the great increase in property value that comes with rail transit, and use the added value to help fund the transit itself.

• Grants would be administered so as to encourage regional cooperation – something sorely needed in Michigan.

So those are the recommendations. They have to pass the State House andSenate. I asked what the bipartisan support was likely to be, and Rep. Byrnes said it was mainly there. There were members of both parties on the Task Force. I've heard the Chamber of Commerce is backing it. There are very few opponents, but unfortunately they are in very high positions in the Senate. So we need to push.

What can we do to help? Ron: if you see negative articles or letters in your newspaper, ANSWER THEM! Explain the need for basic transportation infrastructure. Make constructive suggestions. And I would add, check the on-line news and blogs. Comment on them, too.Terri: Support Partners in Transit, the soon-to-be-official campaign to fund a county-wide transit system in Washtenaw.

The Great Opportunity

The notice inviting people to this meeting said it was all about fixing roads and bridges. We sure need that, but if you've been following this blog, you know I'm not likely to be satisfied without transportation alternatives. I was all set to stand up and shout (well, in a polite, well-moderated way). I didn't need to.

Pam Byrnes stood up to welcome us, and said we need transit to be economically competitive. Terri Blackmore stood up and said we can't have roads that work well without transit that works better, to relieve congestion. Ron DeCook stood up and said the public surveys had taken MDOT aback: young and old alike were clamoring for transit. Mark Schauer stood up and said getting high-speed rail for Michigan is the greatest opportunity for recovery, and the most important thing he can do for the citizens he represents is to bring high-speed rail from Chicago to Detroit.

Rep. Schauer would like to put a train in service that goes from downtown Chicago to downtown Detroit in 3 hours. With this, he issued a challenge: can you demonstrate any other way to get from downtown to downtown that fast?

Now I've got to reflect on that a bit. Can we do it in a train?

To run those 281 miles in three hours, the average speed would need to be 93.7 MPH. I believe that's doable on the existing right-of-way, based on the numbers I've crunched using Japanese non-bullet-train schedules. But it would not be easy. Here are some things that need to be done:

• Amtrak or the State of Michigan would have to own and dispatch the track from the state line to the Detroit station. Otherwise, freight traffic will get in the way and make schedules unreliable.

• Serious work would have to be done in northern Indiana to relieve rail congestion. (Everybody concerned is well aware of this.)

• Of course, the rails, crossing lights, and signal system would have to be upgraded to the level they are now between Kalamazoo and the Indiana line – pretty expensive, but not impossible, and Amtrak knows how to do it.

• The roadbed and rails would have to be upgraded: cleaning and re-leveling the gravel ballast under the tracks, putting in new ties – perhaps concrete rather than wood, and of probably new rail.

• Existing trains would not be able to do it, so new trainsets would have to be made to order.

Let me explain that last . Amtrak has been using the rail line between Kalamazoo and the Indiana state line as a test-bed for moderately high-speed trains in the Midwest. The target speed is 110 MPH, and to make it safe, they have installed special signals at grade crossings, and Positive Train Control (PTC) in the locomotives and track. The locomotives now in use, the General Electric P42 “Genesis” model,is rated for a top speed of 110 MPH. Gradually and quietly, Amtrak has been increasing the speed, careful to make sure all the crossing signals work right and the PTC system works reliably. When I rode the line with my GPS a couple of years ago, they were already running at 90.

I suspect Amtrak is now reached 110. Last Sunday, Amtrak CEO Joseph Boardman rode from Chicago to Kalamazoo in Amtrak's executive railcar, attached to a regularly scheduled train. I have a guess he wanted to be among the first to travel on the line at 110. Just a guess.

So if the trains already run at 110, why would new trainsets be needed to get from Chicago to Detroit in 3 hours?

1. The track from Kalamazoo to the Indiana line has lots of long, straight stretches. East of Kalamazoo, there are a lot more curves on the line. The trains have to slow down to negotiate the curves comfortably, and wouldn't be able to achieve the needed 93.7 MPH average. But there's a solution: trains that tilt can go through curves much faster than those that don't. Many modern trains designed to run on curving lines have an “active tilt” system. They are quite common in Europe, Japan, Australia, and other places, but the only one in the US is the Acela. To achieve an average of 93.7 MPH, the trains would need to tilt.

2. Running between Chicago and Detroit without stopping is an option, but not a practical one. On current Amtrak service, it's the stations between Ann Arbor and Kalamazoo that have the most boardings (Ann Arbor has the most). But with the current cars, an Amtrak conductor has to open the door and stairway, put out a step-stool, and help people up and down some pretty steep steps. Only two doors can be open at any station because that's how many conductors are in the passenger cars. This means the train has to stop for a long time at each station, bringing the average speed down. California solved that problem with their San Joaquin and Capital Corridor trains by having doors are the same level as the platform (which also makes them ADA-compliant) and having all doors open automatically, under the control of one conductor. That way, the station stops take only 1-2 minutes, rather than the 5-10 needed with the current equipment.

3. The cars used now are 30-40 years old. Amtrak hasn't had the money to replace them, and even repairing ones with serious problems has been a challenge. But in order to run in 3 hours between Detroit and Chicago, you need reliable equipment. Not much sense having trains that can do the 3-hour run, if they're broken down half the time.

OK. End of reflection.

Bottom Line

Congressman Schauer tells us the vision for transportation – in the House Transportation Committee, on which he serves, and in the White House – is for an integrated, intermodal system, a holistic solution involving roads, rail, air, and water. It is to be a system that takes into account the seriousness of climate change, the high cost of congestion, and the coming high cost of energy. It is to be a system that provides livability, BUT streamlines that complex funding process, which more often than not slows down progress.

I left the Town Hall Meeting feeling optimistic.

Go, TIGGER!

Here's an item that came up last week (04-21), but I didn't blog about it. There was just too much going on. And it's about buses.

Buses are an important part of any public transportation system. They are necessary everywhere to feed more interesting conveyances like trains and light rail, but they don't get much respect. There are lots of reasons for this, but here's something pretty exciting: Fisher and TIGGER may be getting together to provide AATA with plug-in hybrid buses.

Hey, don't we have hybrid buses in tree-town already? Sure. They improve fuel efficiency by about 66% compared with standard diesel buses. That sounds really good, but consider the MPG:

• Standard diesel buses: about 3 MPG
• Hybrid diesel-electric buses: about 4.5 MPG

*Sigh*. Doesn't look like that much improvement, after all. That's why it's exciting to see plug-in hybrids, which will go a lot further in reducing energy and making it cleaner.

All this is coming together thanks to the efforts of Bruce Emmons and Fisher Coachworks. You know, "Body by Fisher", "The Golden Tower of the Fisher Building" in Detroit's New Center. Bet you thought, as I did, that Fisher was dead and gone. Think again!

What's New

The new bus designed by Emmons at Fisher has these interesting features:

• Light-weight monocoque stainless steel body
• Enough battery power to run about 100 miles
• Totally electric drive
• A small diesel engine that runs at a constant speed to partially recharge the batteries
• Batteries can be fully recharged overnight by plugging the bus into a wall socket
• Completely flat passenger space (no steps in the back)
• Fully ADA compatible
• Seats up to 44; including standees its capacity is 90
• Single rear wheels (2 tires rather than the usual 4 - at least for now).

Here's the idea: the totally new body design allows the weight to be reduced without compromising safety. "Monocoque" means the body is the frame, and the use of high-strength steel throughout is what makes it possible. What makes the flat floor possible is the new power train.

The power train does not work like a Prius's or current hybrid buses. Both these systems use electric power mainly to supplement the internal combustion engine. Fisher's bus uses only electric power to run the bus. The diesel engine spins a generator that partially recharges the batteries while in motion. The engine runs at a constant speed, which gives it greater efficiency and cleaner emissions - and I hope, is quieter, too. The engine design is intended to keep the batteries charged enough for a normal transit-bus day. Complete recharge is expected to happen at night, so there won't be a demand during peak hours. Also, transit agencies can install their own renewable energy sources when that makes financial sense.

Who's TIGGER?

Well, not who but what. TIGGER is a wonderful acronym representing "Transit Investments for Greenhouse Gas and Energy Reduction". It's part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, AKA Stimulus Funds. Any transit agency can apply for funds (unfortunately, only $100 M nationwide) to make capital investments that improve their emissions or reduce their energy needs. Since a plug-in hybrid bus would do both, it's clearly in the sights of the Federal Transit Administration (FTA), which administers the grants. And since Fisher Coachworks is a Detroit-area company (in Troy), it's a great initiative to help Michigan diversity its manufacturing base into green industry. Yea!!!!!!!!

MDOT (Michigan Department of Transportation) is putting in a grant that combines requests for several Michigan transit agencies. AATA is on track to get two of the Fisher buses, worth $600 K each, which are eligible for 100% Federal financing. No local or state money needed. Yea again!!!!!!!

Applications for TIGGER funds are due at FTA on May 18, so it will be a while before we know whether we get any of the money. Meanwhile, Fisher is still refining their bus, of which they've only built one or two test models. You can check them out at Fisher's Web site: http://www.fishercoachworks.com/index.html. They currently offer two videos: the first one is mainly suits standing around talking, but the second one has good explanations of how the bus is build, how it works, and lots of clips of it driving around the Fisher facility. Oh - and it illustrates transit using AATA buses, with an interview of AATA's Terry Black Manager of Maintenance.

If you're interested in funding details, you'll find them at FTA: http://www.fta.dot.gov/index_9440_9326.html#TIGGER.

WALLY! Jackson!

WALLY!

Today (April 27) saw a meeting of the Washtenaw-Livingston "WALLY" commuter rail initiative. Interesting. It was packed - except for me and one other self-identified "interested citizen" - pretty much with "VIPs". Mayors, a state representative, councilmen, presidents of companies, heads of transportation agencies, even the Federal Railroad Administration sent two reps. I won't list anyone's name for fear of leaving someone out. Trust me, it was impressive.

As you may know, Ann Arbor Transportation Authority has agreed to take charge of the Wally project, shepherding it through its development phase and fielding federal and state transit dollars to pay for it. Tom Cornillie is the point man, doing a great job for AATA. The major step forward right now is getting two public relations firms on board: one to do input (community survey), the other output (publicity). Ilium Associates, the "input" company, has done work to support rail startups in Seattle, San Diego, Miami, Spokane, and several other places. Bob Prowda, Exec VP, is their representative. The "output" company, The Rossman Group, is a Lansing PR firm that has done a lot of local work in Michigan. Appropriately, Mark Pischea, President, worked with the Michigan Republican Party - he can focus on Livingston County - and Josh Hovey, Senior Account Exec, is a Democrat, so he can represent the firm in Washtenaw. Looks like a really good team.

What about stimulus funds? Well, maybe. According to Terri Blackmore of WATS, there's a $1.5 billion pot of money to be divided around the nation, and WALLY is probably eligible for some of it. (Crumbs, is my guess.) We won't know if we'll get any of it until the end of September, and we can't even apply until the application and eligibility rules come out May 18. Stay tuned.

A couple of other pieces of good news: Beck Development, which owns a generous pie-slice of land between Eight Mile Road and the track, west of Whitmore Lake, has begun demolition of the old Hoover-Universal / King-Sealy factory. That will make way for some kind of transit-oriented development and a park-and-ride lot, potentially a parking deck if there's demand for one. Here's a photo from my cell camera of the demolition operation.

Howell has also gotten on board with a downtown plan that incorporates the station. I hope to get more details on their plans and Beck's soon, and pass them along to you.

Finally, a big pat on the back to Great Lakes Central Railroad, lessors of the track. (The track belongs to the State, under MDOT.) Lou Ferris, CEO of parent Federated Capital, was at the meeting along with Mike Bagwell, President of GLC and several GLC staff members. It's because of Ferris's vision of restored passenger service north-south in Michigan that Federated is leasing the line and running trains on it, and that WALLY is advancing so fast. Now, if only the Ann Arbor Railroad... And it's because of Bagwell and the staff that GLC's operation is doing well. I caught this picture with my cell phone camera of a GLC doing good, old-fashioned, manual maintenance of way, which is at the heart of running a good railway. They're just north of the future Whitmore Lake station, at the Eight Mile crossing. Good work, guys, all of you!

Jackson Citizens for Economic Growth

They may not have Ann Arbor Spark, but look out for Jackson! They're eager to get their city back up and running, and two-year-old Jackson Citizens for Economic Growth (JCEG) is kicking it! They are totally pushing for the Ann Arbor-Detroit commuter rail project (managed by SEMCOG) to come out to Jackson.

So they brought Rick Harnish, of the Midwest High Speed Rail Association advocacy group (of which I've been a proud member for several years) in from Chicago (on the train, of course!) to discuss the benefits of high speed rail for Jackson tonight. His message is not new to me, so if you're curious, visit his Web site.

One audience member asked why we're proposing to invest in "yesterday's technology" (rail) instead of monorail or maglev, and the answer was interesting. It involves the physics of rail, monorail, and maglev, but the short answer is that two steel rails on transverse ties can carry more weight at less cost than either other system. Monorails are particularly limited in weight, and meglevs are incredibly expensive. The only maglev in scheduled operation is in Shanghai, and the Chinese Government, who built it based on a German plan, isn't discussing how much it cost.

The highlight for me was the contrast between one young man in the audience, who said in effect, "Michigan is dying, so what good will a train do?", and the young people of Question, a JCEG group for those 19-40 who want to make a difference. The Question people are enthusiastic, energetic, articulate, and confident (as well as extremely good-looking!). They are not willing to wait for the older generation to "do something". They really give me hope, not only for Jackson, but for the rest of Michigan.

AATA: At the Top

AATA Board Meeting, 2009-04-22

At tonight's Ann Arbor Transportation Board meeting, two issues stood out. One can be dealt with quickly: the auditor's report confirms that AATA's 2008 financial records and processes were good. $28.6 M is in T-bills (safe, but at very low interest) to be cashed in for operating funds through July, after which next year's Ann Arbor millage is expected (predicted to be 1.2% lower than last year's). For day-to-day expenses, about $831K are in various bank accounts, distributed so that they are all (mainly) covered by FDIC's $250K insurance.

OK. The fun part was discussing the finalist for AATA's vacant CEO (Executive Director) position. And the finalist is (drum rolllllllllllllll) Mr. Michael Ford, with whom the Board will enter into negotiations to finalize terms. So what kind of a person is Mr. Ford?

Well, anyone would be forgiven for mistaking him at first glance for Paul Ajegba, AATA Board Treasurer. Both are tall, black, football- or basket-ball player types with strong, handsome facial features and nearly identical shaved, (polished?) pates. Maybe Ajegba is more the basketball type, and Ford the footballer; I'd love to have them stand together for a picture - they could easily pass for brothers.

Now, enough of this superficial stuff. Michael Ford comes to us from the San Joaquin (Stockton, California) Regional Transit District (which happens to have many of the same model hybrid buses as does AATA). Ford was Chief Operating Officer there, and came to us highly recommended by his CEO. They have implemented a popular BRT-like service, on which stops are limited, tickets are purchased in advance, and traffic lights give them priority when they are late. (This lacks many features of a true BRT system, and is more like the proposed Detroit area "ART", Advanced Rapid Transit.)

Before serving the San Joaquin RTD, Ford held the position of Executive Advisor to the General Manager of TriMet, the Portland, Oregon area transit agency. That agency runs both light rail and streetcar systems, giving Ford rail experience which will be very valuable as AATA presses forward with commuter rail. While in Portland, he served on the Board of United Way of the Columbia-Willamette, and was active in working with transportation needs of the elderly and disabled community.

Stockton, with an estimated 375,426 inhabitants and 685,660 in the metro area, is considerably larger than Ann Arbor (283,904) and Washtenaw County (322,895) [all 2008 estimates]. Stockton experienced very rapid growth in the 1990s and early 2000s, but when the housing bubble burst, it crashed spectacularly. In 2008, housing prices fell a heart-stopping 39%, foreclosures reached 9.5%, and unemployment stood at 13.3%. Well, we do have it bad in Michigan, but I have to admit - grudgingly - that San Joaquin County has it worse.

However, their loss is our gain. Michael Ford is both a transit expert and an accomplished people-person, according to his former CEO and the AATA Board's interview report.

• He's a good listener, and not on an ego-trip.
• Although his answers to some interview questions lacked the "crispness" Board member Ted Annis would have liked, he satisfactorily covered all the issues raised, by the end of the interview.
• Rich Robben was impressed by the answer to his question, apparently "How would you deal with a management subordinate who is not performing up to expectation?". Instead of dealing with his response to the individual's performance, Ford talked about making sure each individual is in a position that's aligned with the goals of the organization - a more holistic approach.
• Chair Nacht was impressed by Ford's polite persistence on the rail issue. When asked repeatedly what he (Ford) would do if the commuter rail project fell through, Ford insisted he would keep trying until it was successful.

It's good to have someone who's worked with rail transit systems: he knows first-hand how popular they become, and how successful they are as engines of local economic development.

All in all, a good choice. I hope we'll soon be able to welcome Michael Ford officially to AATA.

Legislators and Transit, Lansing and Ann Arbor

Yesterday, April 21, several transit advocacy groups got together and had a rally at the State Capitol. Very well organized, we were given pointers on how to communicate effectively with legislators, grouped by county or region from all over Michigan, and shared box lunches with some of our legislators.

Naturally, I sat with other folks from Washtenaw County, mostly advocates for disability services. They're a very well informed group of people, and shared a lot of experience with me. (Thank you, especially Carolyn and LuAnne!)

Washtenaw County legislators in both houses are solidly behind transit, so our role was to encourage rather than persuade. ("Preaching to the choir" is how one of them put it, but it really helps legislators to know their constituents are backing them.) We spread the word about how desperately Michigan needs to reform the way we pay for transportation, as the state doesn't have enough money even to match our available Federal highway grants next year, and so stands to lose more of the money we pay in Federal taxes. Some figures of interest:

• For every dollar Michiganders pay in Federal Gas Tax, we currently get about 92 cents back in Federal matching funds, making us a "net donor state".
• The average expenditure on transportation among US states is about $184 per person, while Michigan spends only about $75 per person. (These figures are approximate, but in the ballpark.)

AATA Planning and Development Committee

The Ann Arbor Transportation Authority's Planning and Development Committee (PDC) met last night also. Carmine Palombo of SEMCOG updated us on the AA-Detroit commuter project. The starting date for service is still October 25, 2010, but before that, the plan is to get a train together to do demonstrations, raise public awareness, test the route, and train operators. One way to raise awareness ahead of the launch would be to run a special train to bring spectators to Ann Arbor for one or more football games, but of course there are a few hurdles to jump before that can be arranged. (Trains on the East-West line cannot access the North-South line that goes past Michigan Stadium, so direct service wouldn't be available. Buses would have to be marshaled to take spectators between the Amtrak station and Michigan Stadium.)

Michigan Department of Transportation will be the responsible authority when the line starts up, but a regional authority would be preferable, and when the dust settles a bit, such an authority will be put together.

Ridership has been estimated conservatively at 600 to 1000 daily trips, given the initial four round-trips planned for starters on weekdays, and three on weekends. (If we were applying for federal funds now, we would be required to make a very conservative estimate of ridership. There are specific rules as to how it's done, which we actually can't meet, because it has to be based on current cummuter "ridership". Not having cummuter service now, we couldn't meet federal requirements, and so were denied the use of 100 million federal dollars back in 2006 - remember? That's why we in Michigan has to set up this commuter route on our own.) Anyway, over the last several years, rail commuter services starting up in cities like Albuquerque, Memphis, and Salt Lake City have all exceeded the conservative ridership estimates with which they pulled in federal funds, and since these are areas just as wedded to their automobiles as Michigan (believe it or not!) I have no doubt we'll exceed the estimates, too.

What about funding? Peter Allen, who as at the first part of the meeting, asked what the fare was likely to be. That hasn't been pinned down yet, but the idea is to make fares comparable to commuter rail in other regions. Just to get from Ypsi to AA could be in the neighborhood of $1.50 to $2.00. This wouldn't come near to funding the operating cost, which is expected to be somewhere between $8-12 million each year, so as Mr. Palombo says, SEMCOG is "passing the hat" around local jurisdictions, foundations, and business that would benefit from the service.

One big unknown in the mix is the usage fee we'd have to pay the freight railroads for the privilege of using their tracks. Mr. Palombo says the fees are "not trivial", but negotiations with Canadian National are still under way.

CN owns the north-south track that runs past the Detroit New Center station. Canadian National just emerged victorious - somewhat - after a long, bruising battle with Chicago-area jurisdictions over purchasing the Elgin, Joliet & Eastern Railway (EJ&E), which provides a sort of "beltway" around the west and south of Chicago, badly needed to relieve freight train congestion. The neighborhoods through which it passes, alerted to CN's plan to run many more, and much longer trains over the line than the EJ&E had done, were up in arms, demanding either a prohibition of such traffic, or extensive mitigation. They asked that the Surface Transportation Board in Washington refuse to allow EJ&E to sell to CN, and though the sale eventually went through, the required mitigation measures will be very expensive and time-consuming for the railroad.

So CN must have emerged with a cautious respect for local authorities, but not necessarily much love for them. We'll see how that plays out in SEMCOG's negotiations over their Detroit trackage.

One other wild card in the trackage "deck" is Norfolk-Southern's (NS's) desire to divest itself of the Michigan Central East-West line that runs from Detroit to Chicago. It owns the portion from Detroit to Battle Creek, which it attempted to sell in 2008 to Watco, a company that operates short-line railways in several states. That sale was blocked, largely over concerns that Watco would not maintain the line up to standards needed to run Amtrak trains. NS still wants to drop that line. It owns a line largely parallel and a few miles south, the line that runs past Metro Airport and hits NS's main Philadelphia-Chicago line in Indiana, east of the line Amtrak uses (and owns).

So if NS wants to sell it, who will buy? Possibly MDOT, cash-strapped as it is. If that happens, there would be no usage-fees to pay along the majority of the AA-Detroit route, greatly reducing operating expenses. So that's in the hands of our politicians in Lansing, who, as we know, are as cash-starved as about anyone. Oh, well.f

Also on the PDC's radar: Moving Purchase of Service Agreement (POSA) partners to fully allocated costs by 2012. For years, Ann Arbor residents have paid a 2-mill tax to support AATA. Ypsilanti City, Ypsi Township, and Pittsfield Township, purchase AATA services from their general fund, not from a dedicated source, and don't currently pay the full cost. For some reason ;-) the folks in Ann Arbor have decided these partners need to stop "mooching" off Ann Arbor taxpayers and pay the whole cost of their own service by 2012. The draft plan, though, is to increase the fees in three steps of about 9% per year, so service can be continued without breaking the partners' budgets. We'll see.

Neil Greenberg, a relatively new guy at AATA, filled us in on plans for another express bus route. AATA has been running an experimental express between Chelsea and AA for a year now, and Neil has been applying his dynamic enthusiasm to tracking how that's working out for riders. Apparently it's going OK, with pleased riders telling their friends and getting them on board too, though the service isn't up to capacity yet. The next express route is being planned for Canton Township, and preliminary plans under way to leave from a lot at a Canton Township park.

The discouraging part of this is that several commercial sites refused to permit AATA riders to to park in their lots. I understand this is actually pretty common, and some malls in Oakland and Macomb Counties have canceled SMART bus privileges to bring their buses in. Hopefully malls will soon begin to realize that buses bring business. According to the Michigan Public Transportation Association, "Most people ride the bus either to earn money or to spend money."

There is yet no concrete starting date, but the goal is this summer, so there will be a relatively peaceful period for debugging the service before the intense Fall season begins. Like the Chelsea Express, this one will probably be operated by Indian Trails (which is why you haven't seen AATA buses in Chelsea!).

And what about WALLY, the AA-Howell commuter rail plan? It seems to be moving along as well. Next Monday, April 27, the monthly meeting is scheduled for 10 AM at the Northfield Township Hall, open to the public. A highlight of that meeting will be presentations by two consultants who have helped commuter rail projects get started in Seattle, San Diego, and Memphis, among other places. Their function is mainly to involve the community in getting the service running and keeping it going.

All in all, an exciting day, but stay tuned for more soon!